The candidacy of Iran’s former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the upcoming presidential race has sent shock waves across the political spectrum in the country. The “Shark” (which was how Rafsanjani used to be known for good reason) kept his thoughts to himself and filed his nomination papers just a few minutes before the deadline.
Even close confidantes were taken by surprise. For the establishment, it came as a nasty surprise. In a jiffy, the best-laid plans for the presidential election on June 14 go awry.
The absurd petition by one-thrid of the Majlis members to the Guardian Council demanding that Rafsanjani be disqualified from contesting the election betrays nervousness and disarray within the establishment. There has been a 2-way split within the establishment already between the conservatives who swear allegiance to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the populist pro-government faction identified with President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Now, Rafsanjani has stepped out of the religious establishment to mobilize a third platform, which could turn out to be a seamless coalition of pro-reform and centrist politicians, middle class and the ‘Bazaaris’. Former reformist president Mohammed Khatami has voiced support for Rafsanjani. The ‘unknown unknown’ is that being an experienced coalition builder, Rafsanjani could inspire sections within the religious establishment who could be called the regime’s ‘internal opposition’ to come alongside, apart from attracting vast sections of the society that are disenchanted with the regime for one reason or another. But political prognosis at this point is like putting the cart before the horse. The Guardian Council needs to first approve the list of candidates after which only the battle lines become clear. The GC’s verdict is expected next week. For the present, what can be said is that this was not the sort of election that the regime was probably banking on. All bets are off — and that in itself is saying a lot for such a high-stakes election which impacts on regional and international security. Read an excellent resume of the state of play by FT’s Roula Khalaf, here. | 
